The latest Public Policy Polling shows new Wyoming poll finds that most voters in the state see Liz Cheney as an outsider...and as a result she starts out at a significant deficit in a primary contest with Mike Enzi.
Cheney starts out at a 54/26 disadvantage in her primary challenge to Enzi. She only has a narrowly positive favorability rating with GOP primary voters at 40/34, while Enzi is quite popular with a 66/24 approval rating. The two actually are pretty close among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' with Enzi leading just 43/37. But his 68/14 advantage with moderate Republicans and 52/26 edge with 'somewhat conservative' ones make it uncompetitive overall.
Former Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal continues to be a very popular figure in Wyoming, with a net +33 favorability rating at 55/22. So it says something about the difficulty Democrats face in national elections in the state that despite that popularity he still trails Enzi by 23 points in a hypothetical match up, 54/31. Enzi has a 47 point lead over Gary Trauner, who ran competitive campaigns for the House in 2006 and 2008, at 66/19.
The only scenario in which Democrats could be competitive for this seat- and it's very far fetched- is one in which Freudenthal decided to run and then Cheney somehow defeated Enzi in the primary. Freudenthal would actually lead Cheney 45/42 in a hypothetical match, likely due to her under water 33/43 favorability rating with the overall electorate. Cheney would still lead Trauner 49/31.
Even if by some chance Enzi decided to retire, Cheney would be far from the favorite in an open seat Senate contest. Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis, who has a 55/25 approval rating with Republican primary voters, would start out leading her 41/34.